TYN(SZ:000591)2024-10-13 16:43Investment Ratings - Daqo ADR: Buy rated, Daqo A: Neutral rated [3] - GCL Tech: Neutral rated [5] - TZE: Sell rated [7] - Tongwei: Sell rated [9] - LONGi: Neutral rated [11] - Hangzhou First: Buy rated [13] Core Insights - The report reflects minor adjustments to solar coverage estimates, with an average fine-tuning of 2% for book values and a -1% tweak for EBITDA of Hangzhou First [1] - The investment thesis for Daqo highlights its leading position in poly production and strong balance sheet, suggesting it can navigate downturns effectively [3] - GCL Tech is positioned to increase market share significantly by 2030, but faces liquidity pressures [5] - TZE is expected to encounter significant challenges due to a shrinking addressable market and high inventory risks [7] - Tongwei's unfavorable supply/demand dynamics for poly lead to a sell rating, despite its rapid rise in the solar industry [9] - LONGi's strong balance sheet is offset by operational challenges, leading to a neutral rating [11] - Hangzhou First is expected to achieve high net income growth due to its market position and capacity expansion [13] Summary by Company Daqo - Leading poly producer with 14% global market share by end-2023, rated Buy due to undervaluation concerns [3] - Target price of US$21.6 based on 0.4X 2024E P/B [3] GCL Tech - Positioned at the lowest end of the cost curve, aiming for 40% market share by 2030, rated Neutral [5] - Target price of HK$1.2 based on 0.7X 2024E P/B [6] TZE - Largest solar wafer producer facing headwinds, rated Sell due to market contraction [7] - Target price of Rmb6.1 based on 0.7X 2024E P/B [8] Tongwei - Rapid growth but unfavorable dynamics for poly, rated Sell [9] - Target price of Rmb13.7 based on 1.1X 2024E P/B [9] LONGi - World leader in solar PV solutions but facing operational headwinds, rated Neutral [11] - Target price of Rmb16.1 based on 2.0X 2024E P/B [11] Hangzhou First - Largest solar film producer with significant market share, rated Buy due to growth potential [13] - Target price of Rmb23.1 based on 13X 2027E EV/EBITDA [13]