摩根士丹利：香港_中国交通运输及基础设施_一周回顾（第41-24期）

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - CSH's 3Q24 recurring net profit was Rmb21.2 billion, representing a 288.57% year-over-year increase, largely meeting expectations [2] - J&T is on track to meet its full-year volume guidance despite a slowdown in 3Q24 volume growth compared to 2Q24 [3] - The application of technology, particularly AI, is expected to drive the next stage of competition in China's logistics industry [4] Summary by Sections 3Q24 Preliminary Results - CSH's implied 3Q24 minority interest was Rmb2.8 billion, up 250% year-over-year, attributed to improved earnings from OOIL [2] - The estimated dividend yield for 2H24 is 8%, with 3Q24 expected to be the peak quarterly earnings for 2024 [2] Volume and Traffic Updates - Average daily express delivery pickup volume increased by 28.4% year-over-year during the 2024 National Holiday, with parcel volume growth remaining robust [3] - Daily passenger traffic during the same period was 286 million, a 4% increase year-over-year [30] Market Observations - International air capacity reached 75% of the 2019 level, down from 77% the previous week [6] - Daily express delivery pickup volume averaged 447 million, a 13.7% week-over-week decrease but a 13.4% increase compared to October 2023 [10] Shipping and Freight Rates - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 9.8% week-over-week, indicating pressure on container shipping fundamentals [33] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 7.2% week-over-week, reflecting ongoing challenges in the dry bulk shipping sector [33] Stock Performance - Aviation services outperformed the market with a -0.6% week-over-week change, while dry bulk shipping underperformed with a -9.6% week-over-week change [7][30]