高盛：中国游戏与娱乐_分析第三季度财报季的关键争论和潜在意外

Industry Overview - The China Games & Entertainment offshore coverage is expected to report earnings starting from mid-November, with divergent performance anticipated across key players [1] - The report highlights the importance of ARPU strategies for music and long-form video streaming players, with Tencent Music and iQiyi focusing on Super VIP and family pack offerings respectively [1] - Advertising growth for Kuaishou and Bilibili is expected to outperform peers during the Singles' Day festival season [1] Company Performance and Outlook Bilibili - Bilibili is expected to achieve 27% YoY sales growth in 3Q24, driven by 88% YoY growth in game revenue and 27% YoY growth in advertising revenue [4] - The company is expected to post a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 208 million in 3Q24, with continued margin improvement anticipated in the coming quarters [4] - Key focus areas include the performance of the Sanguo NSLG game, advertising outlook during Singles' Day, and margin guidance for 4Q24 and 2025 [4] NetEase (NTES) - NetEase is expected to report a 6% YoY decline in game sales for 3Q24, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 7.8 billion, down 7% YoY [3] - The company's performance is impacted by a lack of new game contributions and an unfavorable revenue mix, with management updates on new game pipelines being a key focus [3] - Key upcoming events include the launch of Marvel Rivals and Where Wind Meets in late 2024 and early 2025 [3] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to achieve 11% YoY sales growth in 3Q24, with advertising revenue growing 19% YoY [4] - The company is expected to maintain mid-teen GMV growth in 3Q/4Q24, with a focus on advertising strength and margin expansion into 2025 [4] Tencent Music (TME) - Tencent Music is expected to report 20% YoY growth in music revenue for 3Q24, with net adds of 1.6 million and a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 2 billion, up 48% YoY [5] - The company's ARPU strategy, particularly the SuperVIP offering, is a key focus, with potential for margin expansion in the music business [6] iQiyi - iQiyi is expected to report a 10% YoY decline in sales for 3Q24, with subscription sales down 13% YoY [6] - The company's 4Q subscription revenue and margin outlook are expected to be conservative, with a focus on ARPU growth and content cost trends [6] Financial Estimates and Valuation - NetEase's 2024-26E revenue forecasts have been trimmed by 1.0%-2.3%, reflecting weaker-than-expected monetization of newly released titles [12] - Bilibili's 2024E revenue is expected to grow 20% YoY, with mobile games and advertising revenue contributing significantly to the growth [20] - Kuaishou's 2024E revenue is expected to grow 12% YoY, with online marketing spend revenue growing 21% YoY [21] - Tencent Music's 2024E revenue estimates have been fine-tuned by -0.3~-0.8%, with a focus on moderating net adds and ARPU expansion [23] - iQiyi's 2024-26E revenue estimates have been lowered by -1%~0%, reflecting weaker-than-expected advertising recovery and slower subscription growth [29] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Tencent Music maintains a dominant share in the domestic online music market, with a 73% subscription market share in 3Q24 [25] - iQiyi's market share in the long-form video (LFV) market improved slightly in 3Q24, reaching 32.9%, driven by the release of popular content [32] - The competitive landscape in the LFV market remains stable, with Tencent Video holding a 46% market share in 3Q24 [32] Key Events and Catalysts - Bilibili's Sanguo S4 season in November 2024 and Singles' Day commentary in late November are key events to watch [4] - NetEase's upcoming game launches, including Marvel Rivals and Where Wind Meets, are expected to drive incremental revenue in 2025 [12] - Tencent Music's focus on ARPU growth through SuperVIP offerings and promotional events will be a key driver of future performance [22]