hbky(SH:600985) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-30 06:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Q3 coal volume and price declines have negatively impacted performance, but there is potential for growth in coal mining and coal chemical sectors [2] - The company reported a revenue of 56.67 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.2% to 4.14 billion yuan [2] - The report anticipates a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to falling coal prices, projecting net profits of 5.43 billion, 6.30 billion, and 6.64 billion yuan for those years, respectively [2] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.47 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4%, and a net profit of 1.20 billion yuan, down 10.5% from the previous quarter [2] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 1,114.7 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with Q3 price at 1,052.7 yuan per ton, down 5.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s coal production and sales for the first three quarters were 15.67 million and 11.88 million tons, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.4% and 13.9% [2] Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of the company's coal mining operations and the expected contribution from coal chemical projects, including a 600,000-ton anhydrous ethanol project that has entered trial production [2] - The Inner Mongolia 8 million tons/year Taohe coal mine is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, which will enhance production capacity [2] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 15.42 yuan, with a market capitalization of 41.53 billion yuan [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.02, 2.34, and 2.46 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.7, 6.6, and 6.3 [2][3]