国博电子：业绩阶段承压，股东增持彰显信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][19][21]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with revenue of 5.11 billion RMB, down 43.5% year-on-year and 16.2% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 0.62 billion RMB, down 56.3% year-on-year and 50.0% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The decrease in sales is attributed to reduced revenue from T/R components and RF module businesses, indicating a phase of performance pressure [1][9]. - Despite the challenges, the gross margin improved to 39.6% in Q3 2024, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, possibly due to changes in revenue structure [2][9]. - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, achieving 1.5 billion RMB in Q1-Q3 2024, compared to a negative cash flow of 2.5 billion RMB in the same period last year [2][17]. - Shareholders have shown confidence in the company's long-term prospects, with plans for significant share buybacks amounting to 4-7 billion RMB [2][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 18.14 billion RMB, down 35.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.06 billion RMB, down 31.9% year-on-year [1][9]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 36.4%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 16.9%, up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [2][9]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Confidence - The operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.0 billion RMB, primarily due to reduced procurement payments [2][17]. - The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake in the company, reflecting confidence in its long-term development [2][19]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.70 billion RMB, 5.24 billion RMB, and 6.81 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 71, 63, and 49 [2][19].