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立高食品三季报点评:需求承压,盈利改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.717 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 203 million yuan, up 28.21% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to improve operational efficiency through cost control, optimizing procurement, and enhancing logistics, while focusing on stable growth [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2024E, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.812 billion yuan and a net profit of 263 million yuan, with a projected growth rate of 9% for net profit [1][5] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 31.34%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.98 percentage points to 7.26% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In the first three quarters, frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 58% of revenue, a decrease of about 7% year-on-year, while baking ingredients (cream, sauces, and other baking materials) contributed 42% of revenue, increasing by about 30% [4] - The revenue from the distribution channel increased by approximately 11% year-on-year, driven by the growth of cream products and support for leading distributors [4] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 4.273 billion yuan and 4.777 billion yuan for 2025E and 2026E, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 300 million yuan and 340 million yuan in the same years [1][5]