中国神华：2024年三季报点评报告，三季度业绩同环比改善，自产煤单吨毛利提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua (601088.SH) is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal production and sales have shown stable growth, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in gross profit margin for self-produced coal [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 253.899 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 46.074 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.55% [1] - The report anticipates that the company will maintain long-term growth potential due to its rich resource reserves and stable operations, projecting net profits of CNY 60.018 billion, CNY 61.700 billion, and CNY 62.846 billion for 2024-2026 [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 85.821 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.70% [1] - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal in Q3 was 46.3%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The total power generation for the first three quarters reached 168.14 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [1] Production and Sales - The company produced 244 million tons of commercial coal in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and sold 345 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - The average selling price for coal in the first three quarters was CNY 564 per ton, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year [1] Valuation and Comparables - The report compares China Shenhua with peers such as Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Coal Energy, and others, noting that China Shenhua's valuation is above the industry average [1][3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 13.6, 13.2, and 13.0 respectively, indicating a relatively stable valuation outlook [2][4]