Shanghai Geoharbour Construction (605598) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 940 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.5% to 110 million yuan [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its business in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, which may temporarily affect domestic revenue growth due to structural adjustments [2] - New contract signing remains at a historically high level, with a total of 1.87 billion yuan in new contracts signed from January to September 2024, including 690 million yuan in the third quarter [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 885.11 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.50%. For 2023, the revenue is projected to be 1,277.45 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.33% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 156.79 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 155.61%. The forecast for 2023 is 174.10 million yuan, showing an 11.04% growth [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.71 yuan for 2023, with a P/E ratio of 27.10 [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 30.6%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 5.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - The operating expense ratio slightly increased, with the sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios reported at 0.7%, 16.1%, 2.9%, and 0.7% respectively [2] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The net cash flow from operating activities for the third quarter of 2024 was -56.55 million yuan, indicating a cash outflow increase of 140 million yuan year-on-year [2] - As of the end of the third quarter, the company's accounts receivable balance was 470 million yuan, an increase of 150 million yuan year-on-year [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high demand for infrastructure in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, supported by its ability to secure overseas orders [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 200 million yuan, 290 million yuan, and 350 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 16, and 13 [2]