AHHL(SH:600761) Guolian Securities·2024-11-01 02:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Heli (600761) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that the domestic macroeconomic environment in 2024 is expected to be less favorable than anticipated, leading to a decrease in demand for forklifts. However, the overseas demand is projected to remain robust due to the increasing penetration of lithium battery technology in forklifts. The company is expected to achieve revenues of 18.36 billion, 19.85 billion, and 21.48 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 1.47 billion, 1.68 billion, and 1.90 billion yuan respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 14.11%. The EPS is projected to be 1.65, 1.88, and 2.13 yuan per share for the same period, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [2][6][7]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.409 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, and a net profit of 1.101 billion yuan, up 11.63% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 4.4 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 9.18% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 21.53% and 8.82%, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.29 and 0.47 percentage points. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 21.42%, and the net margin was 7.26%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.26 percentage points but a decline of 0.83 percentage points for net margin [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The domestic forklift industry is experiencing stable growth, with the total sales volume in China reaching 970,680 units in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. The company has established a strong domestic market presence with 27 provincial marketing agencies and nearly 500 secondary and tertiary service networks [6][7]. - The export demand for forklifts is growing rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 19.9% in sales volume. The company has established seven overseas centers and plans to expand its international market share by setting up a European headquarters and an overseas R&D center in Germany [7]. Financial Projections - The financial projections for Anhui Heli from 2024 to 2026 include revenues of 18.36 billion, 19.85 billion, and 21.48 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.47 billion, 1.68 billion, and 1.90 billion yuan respectively. The EPS is expected to be 1.65, 1.88, and 2.13 yuan per share, with a projected CAGR of 14.11% [2][8].