Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) China Post Securities·2024-11-01 07:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 2.717 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.22% and 28.21% respectively [6]. - The performance in the supermarket channel was weak, leading to a significant decline in the frozen baking category, while cream products continued to show strong growth [6]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 32.17%, with a slight decrease due to rising raw material prices, but overall margins remained stable due to the scale advantages of key products [7]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 3.771 billion, 4.303 billion, and 4.749 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit estimates of 278 million, 332 million, and 382 million yuan, indicating substantial growth [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue growth rate is 7.78%, with a projected net profit growth rate of 281.04% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are forecasted to be 1.64, 1.96, and 2.26 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 19, and 16 times [8][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 3.939 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.7% [12].