小熊电器：行业需求未恢复，盈利水平承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is adjusted to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is 3.139 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.40%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, down 42.91% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is 126 million yuan, a decline of 52.99% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.008 billion yuan, an increase of 3.17% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 19 million yuan, down 75.60% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was only 4 million yuan, down 94.39% year-on-year [1]. - The overall industry performance shows no significant recovery, with various product categories experiencing price declines, particularly air fryers, which saw a sales decline of 30.07% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 3.00 percentage points to 35.62%, and for Q3 2024, it decreased by 7.49 percentage points to 33.34% [2]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 and Q3 2024 decreased by 3.56 percentage points and 5.50 percentage points, respectively, to 5.95% and 2.57% [2]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 275 million, 311 million, and 346 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38.2% in 2024, followed by increases of 13.0% and 11.3% in the subsequent years [2][3]. Industry Overview - The industry demand has not recovered, with intense competition and significant price pressure on brand manufacturers. For the first nine months of 2024, the online sales of various kitchen appliances showed mixed results, with some categories like health pots and rice cookers experiencing declines [1].