五芳斋：公司信息更新报告：业绩阶段性承压，中秋月饼逆势增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2024. However, the mooncake sales have shown growth against the trend, indicating potential resilience in certain product lines [3][4] - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 has been slightly adjusted downwards, with expected figures of 1.5 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.8 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -7.4%, +8.7%, and +8.2% [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand, with both rice dumpling and non-dumpling businesses potentially driving growth [3] Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.05 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%, and a net profit of 210 million, down 12.8% [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 470 million, also down 15.0% year-on-year, with a net loss of 20 million, marking a 53.3% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3] - The revenue from rice dumplings in Q3 2024 was 190 million, down 36.7% year-on-year, while mooncake sales reached 190 million, up 21.7% year-on-year [4] Sales Channel and Market Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue from various sales channels showed declines, with chain stores, e-commerce, and supermarkets down by 16.3%, 25.6%, and 24.9% respectively. However, other channels saw increases [5] - Major sales regions such as East China and North China experienced revenue declines of 5.2% and 31.9% respectively, indicating a slow recovery in the overall consumer environment [5] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross margin remained stable at 28.79%, with a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points. However, various expense ratios increased, leading to a net margin decline of 2.17 percentage points to -4.96% [6] - The company’s operating income for 2024 is projected to be 2.265 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, while net profit is expected to be 153 million, down 7.4% [7]