百润股份：三季报点评：预调酒承压，期待Q4新品

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 758 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 172 million yuan, down 24.01% year-on-year. The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated 671 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a decline of 6.58% due to weak terminal demand and a high base from the previous year. The company maintains a leading position in the pre-mixed cocktail market and has significant advantages in whiskey production capacity and reserves. The launch of new products in Q4 is expected to drive growth [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.386 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 70.18%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced commercial discounts and lower raw material costs. However, the operating expense ratio increased to 33.46%, up 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit margin of 22.67%, down 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company is strategically positioned in the whiskey market, which is small but growing rapidly in China. The company has been developing its liquor business since 2017, with advantages in production capacity and advanced facilities. The launch of whiskey products in Q4 2024 is anticipated to contribute positively to revenue growth. The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 3.204 billion yuan, 3.537 billion yuan, and 3.867 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 720 million yuan, 836 million yuan, and 924 million yuan [7][8].