CMES(601872) 国信证券·2024-11-03 12:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][9]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to weak demand in foreign oil transportation, but there is optimism regarding price elasticity under rigid supply conditions [1][4]. - The oil transportation segment was the main drag on profits, with a significant decline in net profit attributed to falling oil transport prices [1][7]. - The dry bulk business showed continuous improvement, with a notable increase in net profit driven by high freight rates [1][7]. - The report highlights the impact of the USD exchange rate on both revenue and expenses, as well as a reduction in government subsidies affecting net profit [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 192.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, while Q3 revenue was 60.61 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 33.69 billion yuan, down 10.35% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 8.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.67% year-on-year [1][4]. Business Segments - The oil transportation segment reported a net profit of 3.9 billion yuan in Q3, a decline of 28% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in oil transport prices [1][7]. - The dry bulk business saw a BDI index average of 1871 points in Q3, a 57% increase year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 3.7 billion yuan, up 75% year-on-year [1][7]. - The container shipping segment maintained high profitability, contributing a net profit of 2.3 billion yuan in Q3, a 33% increase year-on-year [1][7]. Outlook - The outlook for Q4 remains cautious due to weak crude oil demand, with attention on potential changes in global oil production post-U.S. elections [1][8]. - The report suggests that limited supply-side growth in the industry from 2024 to 2025 may support price recovery, particularly if Chinese fiscal policies shift to stimulate demand for bulk shipping [1][8].