FAST PRINT(002436) 东吴证券·2024-11-04 09:15Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - FCBGA investment has put short-term pressure on profits, but long-term benefits from domestic substitution are expected to drive growth [2] - Semiconductor business is progressing steadily, with BT substrate revenue growing rapidly due to the recovery of the memory chip market [3] - Focus on IC packaging substrate technology improvement, with significant development potential [4] - Despite short-term profit fluctuations, the company's leading position in ABF substrates and strategic customer relationships support long-term growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.35 billion yuan, up 9% YoY, with a net loss of 30 million yuan, down 117% YoY [2] - Q3 revenue was 1.47 billion yuan, up 3% YoY, with a net loss of 50 million yuan, down 130% YoY [2] - 2024E revenue is projected at 6.062 billion yuan, up 13.09% YoY, with net profit expected to be 31.98 million yuan, down 84.86% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue is projected at 7.162 billion yuan, up 18.15% YoY, with net profit expected to be 311.93 million yuan, up 875.51% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue is projected at 8.817 billion yuan, up 23.11% YoY, with net profit expected to be 456.02 million yuan, up 46.19% YoY [1] Business Highlights - BT substrate business has seen rapid growth due to increased market share with major memory customers and optimization of product structure [3] - ABF substrate is in the market expansion phase, with low-layer board yield exceeding 92% and high-layer board yield stable above 85% [3] - The company has made significant achievements in thin-board processing and fine-line manufacturing since entering the CSP packaging substrate field in 2012 [4] - The company expanded into the ABF substrate field in 2022, further enhancing its advanced packaging substrate industry layout [4] Valuation and Financial Metrics - Current P/E ratio is 467.10x for 2024E, 47.88x for 2025E, and 32.75x for 2026E [1] - Current market price is 10.48 yuan, with a one-year low/high of 8.05/17.85 yuan [6] - Market capitalization is 17.70698 billion yuan, with a P/B ratio of 3.49x [6] - ROE is projected at 0.61% for 2024E, 5.66% for 2025E, and 7.64% for 2026E [11] Industry and Market Context - The IC packaging substrate is a critical component in the semiconductor industry, with strong demand driven by AI technology advancements [4] - The company is expected to continue leading the domestic substitution process in advanced packaging, contributing to strong growth in the semiconductor business [3][4]