BEAR APPLIANCE(002959) 国联证券·2024-11-07 05:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected valuations of 26X/17X/15X for 2024-2026 [2][4][6] Core Views - The company's traditional business revenue continued to decline by nearly double digits in Q3 2024, excluding the consolidation of Roman Smart, with significant profit pressure [2][6] - The company is actively adjusting its strategies, and operational quality is expected to improve, supported by policy stimulus and e-commerce promotions, which may drive a sequential improvement in industry demand [2][6] - The company's revenue and profitability are expected to improve in Q4 2024, driven by internal strategy adjustments and external demand recovery [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.17%, but net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 75.6% year-on-year to RMB 0.19 billion [6] - Excluding the impact of Roman Smart's consolidation, the company's traditional business revenue is estimated to have declined by approximately 10% in Q3 2024 [6] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the consolidation of Roman Smart and intense industry competition [6] - The company's net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.2 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, primarily due to declining gross margins and increased R&D expenses [6] Business Segments - Traditional e-commerce revenue continued to decline in Q3 2024, while Douyin e-commerce revenue is expected to reverse the previous sharp decline due to lower base effects and changes in operational strategies [6] - Overseas revenue maintained strong growth, providing incremental contributions, while offline revenue remained relatively stable [6] Future Outlook - The company's performance for 2024-2026 is expected to grow by -37%/+46%/+13% year-on-year, with valuations of 26X/17X/15X [2][6] - The company's high R&D investment is expected to translate into product innovation, which may drive future growth [6] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 46.91 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 0.44%, while 2025E and 2026E revenues are expected to grow by 12.15% and 8.17%, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is estimated at RMB 2.81 billion, a year-on-year decline of 36.79%, with expected growth of 46.45% and 13.08% in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [7] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 25.5X, 17.4X, and 15.4X, respectively [7]