CSICL(601989) 长江证券·2024-11-07 06:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding Industry Company (CSIC) [5] Core Views - CSIC's operating conditions continue to improve, with strong performance in both existing and new orders [1] - The company's main ship types align with the recovery trend of oil tankers, enabling continuous batch orders and enhancing market competitiveness [1] - The shipbuilding business profitability is expected to improve throughout the year [1] - The global shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward trend, with Chinese shipyards holding full order books and facing supply chain pressures [7] - CSIC's acquisition of assets like Gangchuan Heavy Industry and Wuchang Hangrong will increase core production capacity, alleviating capacity constraints and supporting long-term order fulfillment [1][7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, CSIC reported revenue of 13.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.09%, but net profit attributable to shareholders was 400 million yuan, compared to a loss of 303 million yuan in the same period last year [5] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached 35.270 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.35%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 934 million yuan, reversing a loss of 110 million yuan in the same period last year [5] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 5.364 billion yuan, a 95% increase year-on-year, driven by increased contract prepayments [6] - As of Q3 2023, inventory stood at 31.166 billion yuan, while contract liabilities reached 61.756 billion yuan, reflecting strong order intake [6] Order and Delivery Performance - In the first half of 2024, CSIC secured 68 civilian ship orders, totaling 11.671 million deadweight tons and 43.6 billion yuan in value, representing year-on-year growth of 83.8%, 230.6%, and 130.2%, respectively [6] - The company delivered 26 civilian ships in the first half, totaling 2.773 million deadweight tons and 843,000 corrected gross tons, a 10.5% increase year-on-year [6] - For the full year 2024, CSIC is expected to deliver 60 ships, with 34 ships scheduled for delivery in the second half, accelerating during the peak delivery season [6] Industry Overview - The global shipbuilding industry is in an upward cycle, with the new ship price index reaching 189.96 points as of September 2024, the highest since 1996 [7] - Chinese shipyards accounted for 55.1% of global shipbuilding completion, 74.7% of new orders, and 61.4% of order backlogs in the first nine months of 2024, solidifying their leading position [7] - Container ships and gas carriers saw significant growth in new orders, with year-on-year increases of 111% and 101%, respectively [7] Future Outlook - CSIC is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.685 billion yuan in 2024 and 3.985 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 70x and 30x [8] - The company's core capacity expansion through acquisitions will help alleviate production bottlenecks and support long-term profitability growth [7]