KPC(600422) 华源证券·2024-11-10 13:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported stable performance in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 19.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.41%, and a net profit of 1.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91% [2][4] - The company is focusing on building a leading brand in traditional Chinese medicine, with core products like "Kunzhen Medicine 1381" showing rapid growth [3] - The integration with China Resources is expected to enhance growth prospects, aiming for a doubling of revenue by 2028 [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 54.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.73%, and a net profit of 3.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.36% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 40.55%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.68 percentage points, attributed to a decline in the revenue share of high-margin injection products [2] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 216 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, compared to a negative 36.37 million yuan in the same period last year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.62 billion yuan, 7.03 billion yuan, and 8.94 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 25%, and 27% respectively [4][5] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 21X for 2024, 17X for 2025, and 13X for 2026 [4]