lolo(SZ:000848) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-11 03:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company has shown stable profitability due to a decrease in almond prices, which has positively impacted its profit margins. The company also announced a share buyback plan, reflecting its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages in almond procurement in Q4 and the first half of 2025, leading to potential profit elasticity [2]. - Revenue growth is projected at 7% for 2024 and 2025, with a slight decline in net profit expected in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.159 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.10%, and a net profit of 419 million yuan, a decrease of 5.49% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenues were 525 million yuan, down 2.99% year-on-year, while net profit was 126 million yuan, down 2.30% [1]. - The gross margin improved by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year due to favorable weather conditions leading to increased almond production and lower procurement costs [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.149 billion yuan, 3.354 billion yuan, and 3.566 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 6.60%, 6.50%, and 6.30% [3][6]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 622 million yuan, with a decline of 2% year-on-year, followed by a recovery of 14% in 2025 and 10% in 2026 [2][3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 15X for 2024, 13X for 2025, and 12X for 2026 [2][3].