10月美国通胀数据解读：核心CPI走势平稳

Inflation Trends - In October, the US CPI year-on-year growth rate increased to 2.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate remained flat at 3.3% compared to last month[4] - The increase in CPI is primarily due to a reduction in the drag from energy items[4] Energy and Commodity Prices - The year-on-year growth rate of the CPI energy component rose by 1.9 percentage points to -4.9% in October, with gasoline prices increasing by 3.1 percentage points to -12.2%[4] - Brent crude oil prices slightly rebounded to $75.8 per barrel due to reduced geopolitical risks[4] - The Mannheim index for used car prices showed a decline, indicating potential future price drops despite a recent rebound in used car prices[5] Housing and Services Inflation - Core services year-on-year growth rate was 4.8%, up by 0.1 percentage points from last month[6] - Owner's equivalent rent growth remained stable at 5.2%, but rental prices showed a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to last month[7] - Leading indicators suggest that housing inflation is likely to continue decreasing, alleviating service inflation pressures[7] Market Expectations - Following the release of October's inflation data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 79%[9] - Despite the recent uptick in CPI growth, core CPI growth excluding energy remains stable, indicating ongoing inflation cooling trends[9] - The employment market shows signs of cooling, with a rise in the unemployment rate, reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut[9]