宏观观察2024年第53期（总第564期）：美国大选结果对我国芯片产业发展的影响和应对建议＊

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Policies on China's Semiconductor Industry - Since the Obama administration, the U.S. has implemented various sanctions against China, significantly impacting the semiconductor industry and supply chains[3] - The Biden administration's CHIPS and Science Act aims to restore U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, further isolating China's integrated circuit industry from global supply chains[3] - The U.S. semiconductor manufacturing share has decreased from approximately 37% in 1990 to around 12% in 2020, indicating a loss of competitive advantage[4] Group 2: CHIPS and Science Act Provisions - The CHIPS Act allocates approximately $52.7 billion for semiconductor manufacturing, research, and workforce development[9] - It includes a 25% investment tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing facilities, which is expected to reduce federal revenue by $24.5 billion over the 2023-2027 fiscal years[11] - The Act also establishes "guardrail clauses" that prevent companies receiving U.S. government funding from expanding semiconductor manufacturing in China for ten years[9] Group 3: Short-term Effects and Challenges - The U.S. wafer fabrication capacity is projected to double over the next decade, with a cumulative growth of 203%, significantly higher than the 11% growth from 2012 to 2022[14] - Despite the CHIPS Act, the actual impact on U.S. semiconductor development has been less than expected, with many projects facing delays due to cultural and regulatory challenges[24] - The semiconductor workforce in the U.S. is expected to grow from 345,000 to 460,000 jobs between 2023 and 2030, but a shortage of 67,000 workers is anticipated by 2030 if no action is taken[27] Group 4: Potential Future Scenarios - Trump's potential return to the presidency may lead to a continuation of aggressive policies against China's semiconductor industry, including expanded sanctions and tariffs[39] - The "guardrail clauses" in the CHIPS Act may create vulnerabilities for the U.S. semiconductor alliance, as companies may be restricted from engaging with the Chinese market[31] - China's semiconductor industry is expected to maintain resilience, with a projected increase in global IC wafer fabrication capacity from 19.1% in 2023 to 22.3% by 2026[32]