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苹果：iPhone量价小幅增长，AI为未来软硬件收入成长关键
AAPLApple(AAPL) 第一上海证券·2024-11-27 13:31

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of 255.00,indicatingapotentialupsideof9.50255.00, indicating a potential upside of 9.50% from the current stock price of 232.87 [2][4][17]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 94.9billionforthequarter,ayear−over−yearincreaseof6.194.9 billion for the quarter, a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 94.4 billion. Product revenue was 70billion,up4.170 billion, up 4.1%, while service revenue reached 25 billion, growing 11.9% [15][21]. - The gross profit was 43.9billion,withagrossmarginof46.243.9 billion, with a gross margin of 46.2%, exceeding the expected 46.0%. However, net profit fell to 14.7 billion, a decline of 35.8% year-over-year due to a one-time tax payment of 10.2billion[15][22].−ThereporthighlightsthelaunchoftheiPhone16,whichfeaturesupgradedmemoryandprocessingcapabilities,andanticipatesthatAIdevelopmentswilldrivefuturegrowthinbothhardwareandsoftwarerevenues[16][38].FinancialSummary−Thecompany’snetprofitprojectionsforFY2024toFY2027areasfollows:10.2 billion [15][22]. - The report highlights the launch of the iPhone 16, which features upgraded memory and processing capabilities, and anticipates that AI developments will drive future growth in both hardware and software revenues [16][38]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit projections for FY2024 to FY2027 are as follows: 93.7 billion, 110.9billion,110.9 billion, 119.3 billion, and 126.5billionrespectively,withdilutedearningspershare(EPS)expectedtogrowfrom126.5 billion respectively, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) expected to grow from 6.1 to 8.9overthesameperiod[12][17].−Totaloperatingrevenueforecastsforthenextfewyearsare8.9 over the same period [12][17]. - Total operating revenue forecasts for the next few years are 391.0 billion for FY2024, 415.6billionforFY2025,415.6 billion for FY2025, 442.3 billion for FY2026, and 464.0billionforFY2027,reflectingacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of5.9464.0 billion for FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% [13][49]. - The report indicates that the company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at 15.7 billion, with a net cash position of 5billion,anditreturnedover5 billion, and it returned over 29 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends [22][37]. Product Performance - iPhone revenue for the quarter was 46.2billion,showinga646.2 billion, showing a 6% year-over-year increase, with an average selling price (ASP) of 825, up 8fromthepreviousyear[32][36].−Servicerevenuereached8 from the previous year [32][36]. - Service revenue reached 25 billion, marking a 12% increase, with over 1 billion paid subscribers across various services [37][40]. - The iPad and Mac segments showed growth, with iPad revenue at 7billion(up87 billion (up 8%) and Mac revenue at 7.7 billion (up 2%), while wearables and accessories saw a decline of 3% to 9billion[42][44].MarketOutlook−ThereportanticipatesthattheoverallrevenuegrowthforFY25Q1willbeinthelowtomid−singledigits,withgrossmarginsexpectedtoremainbetween469 billion [42][44]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the overall revenue growth for FY25Q1 will be in the low to mid-single digits, with gross margins expected to remain between 46% and 47% [15][26]. - The company is expected to benefit from a growing user base in India, with projected hardware sales exceeding 20 billion in the coming years [25].