MEITUAN(HK:03690) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-12-02 01:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is maintained at "Buy" [2][7]. Core Views - Short-term performance growth is expected to fluctuate, but the overall profit trend remains upward. The company has adjusted its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 43.5 billion, 55.7 billion, and 70.7 billion CNY respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 87.1%, 28.1%, and 27.0% [7]. - The current stock price of 168.7 HKD corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 22.5, 17.6, and 13.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from solid delivery barriers, resilient flash purchase business, and improved profit margins as the competitive landscape stabilizes [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 93.58 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, slightly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 92 billion CNY. The non-IFRS net profit was 12.8 billion CNY, up 124% year-on-year, also surpassing the consensus estimate of 11.7 billion CNY [8]. - Core business revenue grew by 20.2% year-on-year, with instant delivery transaction volume increasing by 14.5%. The operating profit margin for the core business improved to 21.0%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Business Segments - The core business is expected to see profit growth outpacing revenue growth due to improved advertising monetization rates and optimized delivery costs. The community group buying business is also reducing losses better than expected [9]. - New business segments, including Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuaidilong, contributed to a 28.9% year-on-year revenue increase, with an operating profit margin of -4.2%, narrowing by 1.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8][9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in delivery unit economics (UE) and expects short-term fluctuations in in-store profit margins. Increased investment in overseas businesses is also planned [9]. - The macroeconomic recovery is expected to drive profit growth revisions, with a stable competitive environment in the in-store sector likely to enhance profit margins [7][9].