证券行业2025年投资展望：政策主导、顺势而为

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, particularly the securities industry, with a "看好" (positive) rating for 2025 [1] Core Views - The securities sector outperformed major market indices in 2024, with the Shenwan Secondary Securities Index rising by 33.32% year-to-date as of December 20, 2024 [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the capital markets in 2025, driven by supportive macroeconomic policies and regulatory improvements [2] - The "9.24" policy announcements in 2024 significantly boosted market trading volumes, with daily average trading volume reaching 20.15 trillion yuan in October, up from 5.973 trillion yuan in August [3] - Wealth management and ETF-related businesses are seen as key growth areas for securities firms, with potential for rapid expansion in fee-based income [3] - The report highlights the importance of asset allocation and risk management capabilities for securities firms, especially in a volatile market environment [4] - Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2025, with several major mergers and acquisitions anticipated, including potential deals involving Guotai Junan & Haitong, Minsheng & Guolian, and others [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance and Policy Impact - The securities sector experienced a strong rebound in 2024, driven by multiple policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting investor confidence [1] - The "9.24" policy announcements in 2024 led to a significant increase in market trading volumes, with daily average trading volume stabilizing above 1 trillion yuan in the latter months of the year [3] - The report expects continued policy support in 2025, including more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which could further benefit the securities industry [2] Wealth Management and ETF Opportunities - The rapid growth in ETF investments is seen as a key driver for wealth management businesses, with securities firms expected to focus on ETF-related products and services [3] - The report notes that the rise in ETF investments could lead to increased fee income for securities firms, particularly in the area of fund settlement services [3] - Wealth management transformation remains a critical focus for securities firms, with a shift towards higher-value advisory services and product offerings [53] Industry Consolidation and Regulatory Trends - The report anticipates an acceleration in industry consolidation in 2025, with several major mergers and acquisitions expected to take place [5] - Regulatory trends are expected to remain focused on improving the capital market environment and standardizing the behavior of market participants [2] - The report highlights the importance of regulatory clarity and policy support in driving industry performance and valuation recovery [4] Investment Strategy and Valuation - The report suggests that the securities sector's valuation remains attractive, with a current PB ratio of 1.59x, which is at the 40.50% percentile of its 10-year historical range [4] - The report recommends focusing on leading securities firms with strong innovation capabilities and undervalued stocks, particularly those with exposure to wealth management and ETF-related businesses [5] - The report also emphasizes the importance of policy direction in determining the industry's performance and valuation recovery in 2025 [4]