Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted investment return exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in 2024, with projected revenue of 4.18 billion RMB, a 12% year-on-year decline, primarily due to a decrease in the Chinese film market box office and underperformance of some invested films [1][4]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the 2025 Spring Festival box office, with specific films like "Detective Chinatown 1900" anticipated to perform well [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s online entertainment ticketing revenue is projected to be 1.94 billion RMB in 2024, down 14% year-on-year, which is less than the overall market decline of 22.7% [2]. - Entertainment content service revenue is expected to reach 2.01 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 12.7% decrease, with a stable performance anticipated between the first and second halves of the year [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 40.3%, with a significant drop in the second half of the year due to high production and promotional costs [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 4.2 billion, 4.6 billion, and 5.0 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [4][5]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is revised down to 190 million RMB, an 80% decline year-on-year, primarily due to losses from certain film investments [1][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the film ticketing business, with strong correlations to the overall film market performance [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong film selection capabilities and its strategic partnerships with top artists, which are expected to enhance its market position [2][3].
猫眼娱乐：2024年业绩前瞻：24年业绩预期承压，看好25年春节档票房表现