CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 群益证券·2025-01-17 03:18Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to a decline in offshore duty-free sales, but airport duty-free operations are showing signs of recovery. The overall revenue forecast for 2024 is RMB 56.49 billion, a decrease of 16.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 4.26 billion, down 36.5% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the company's performance in 2025, driven by favorable policies and a rebound in tourism, particularly in Hainan. The net profit is projected to increase to RMB 5.02 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [8][6]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Information - The company operates in the leisure services industry, with an A-share price of RMB 61.60 as of January 16, 2025. The market capitalization is approximately RMB 120.27 billion, with major shareholder being China Tourism Group [2][6]. Recent Ratings - The company's stock ratings have fluctuated over the past year, with the most recent rating being "Buy" as of October 16, 2024. Previous ratings included "Trading Buy" and "Buy" [3][6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.71 billion in 2023, with a projected decline to RMB 4.26 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 5.02 billion in 2025. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 2.06 in 2024, RMB 2.43 in 2025, and RMB 2.68 in 2026 [7][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is RMB 56.49 billion, with a gradual increase to RMB 62.85 billion in 2025 and RMB 68.09 billion in 2026. The company is expected to improve its profit margins as the market recovers [13][8]. Market Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in inbound tourism, with a 43.9% year-on-year rise in the number of travelers, which is expected to positively impact airport duty-free sales. The company is also expanding its presence in urban duty-free stores [8][6].