Investment Rating - Buy rating, first-time coverage [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong development momentum in 2024, with its first store under the "Laiyoupin" brand opening in January 2025, marking further innovation in the snack retail industry [5] - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth due to the continuous expansion of its snack retail business and increasing market share [5] - The company has actively explored business transformation, entering the snack retail market in 2022 and integrating multiple snack brands to enhance market competitiveness [6] - The company's snack retail business has accelerated, with net profit margins steadily increasing, and the number of stores expected to reach 10,000 by the end of 2024 [7] - The snack retail market has formed a duopoly, with the company having significant room for store expansion and potential for profit margin improvement [8][9] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 320.63%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248.64% [7] - The snack retail business achieved quarterly revenues of 4.695 billion yuan, 5.979 billion yuan, and 9.554 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, with net profit margins of 2.5%, 2.72%, and 2.73% respectively [7] - The company's gross profit margin for the snack retail business exceeded 10% in the first half of 2024, with a stable operating net profit margin of 2-3% [8] Business Strategy - The company has transitioned from focusing on edible fungi to diversified retail business, integrating multiple snack brands to enhance market competitiveness [6] - The company has accelerated the layout of its snack retail business, with a focus on store model refinement and upgrading, aiming to improve store efficiency through customized products and private brands [8] - The company has increased its control over subsidiaries by acquiring minority equity, which is expected to enhance consolidated net profit and demonstrate stronger control over subsidiaries [9] Market Outlook - The snack retail market is in a rapid store expansion phase, with the company actively expanding its store network to capture market share [8] - The company is expected to achieve significant profit margin improvement in the long term as the business stabilizes and economies of scale emerge [9] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.254 billion yuan, 49.577 billion yuan, and 56.468 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 225.53%, 63.87%, and 13.9% respectively [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 203 million yuan, 568 million yuan, and 754 million yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 345.07%, 179.58%, and 32.68% respectively [10] - The company's EPS is expected to be 1.13 yuan, 3.16 yuan, and 4.19 yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 80, 29, and 22 times [10] Financial Ratios - The company's gross profit margin is expected to increase from 9.3% in 2023 to 12.0%, 12.8%, and 13.0% in 2024-2026 [15] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from -0.9% in 2023 to 0.7%, 1.1%, and 1.3% in 2024-2026 [15] - ROE is expected to increase from -12.8% in 2023 to 21.4%, 45.6%, and 46.0% in 2024-2026 [15]
万辰集团：零食量贩赛道高歌猛进，看好业绩长期增长