中国电子：Meta超预期、微软云放缓——Capex不会因Deepseek降低；但重推理轻训练Meta Beat,Azure Miss——Deepseek should Spur Capex instead

Core Insights - Meta's advertising business showed strong performance, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching $48.385 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $20.838 billion, up 49% [3] - Microsoft's cloud computing segment experienced a slowdown, with Q2 revenue of $69.632 billion, a 12% year-over-year growth, but below market expectations [4] - Both companies are increasing capital expenditures (Capex) to support AI development, with Meta planning to raise Capex to $60-65 billion [3][4] Meta Analysis - Meta's advertising revenue was $46.783 billion, accounting for 97% of total revenue, while its Reality Labs segment incurred an operating loss of $4.967 billion [3] - The growth in Meta's advertising business is attributed to the application of AI technology, enhancing ad effectiveness and user engagement [3][8] - Meta's Q1 2025 revenue guidance is between $39.5 billion and $41.8 billion, reflecting an 8% to 15% year-over-year growth [3] Microsoft Analysis - Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment, including Azure, generated $25.54 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, but fell short of market expectations [4] - Azure's revenue growth slowed to 31%, down from 33% in the previous quarter [4] - Microsoft continues to invest heavily in AI, with an additional $750 million investment in OpenAI, bringing total investments close to $14 billion [4] Capital Expenditure Insights - The report suggests that increased efficiency in AI will lead to greater returns on investment, potentially driving higher Capex rather than reducing it [5][9] - Capex decisions are influenced more by payment capabilities than by cost or set goals, indicating a competitive landscape [5][9] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to accommodate various large models, leading to increased demand for AI Data Cloud Services [5][9]