Vipshop(VIPS) 国信证券·2025-02-23 23:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5][10]. Core Views - The report indicates that consumer sentiment is gradually improving, and the company is increasing shareholder returns. The revenue for Q4 2024 was 33.2 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 4.2%, primarily due to weak demand and intensified competition. However, the clothing category showed positive growth, and other income increased by 4% year-over-year, driven by the Shanshan Outlet stores [1][7]. - For Q1 2025, the management expects revenue growth to be in the range of -5% to 0%, with a goal to achieve positive growth in GMV and revenue for the year [3][10]. - The company reported a GMV of 66.2 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 0%. The number of active buyers decreased by 6% year-over-year to 45.7 million [1][7]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 3 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7%, with a stable net profit margin. Adjusted operating profit decreased by 14% year-over-year, and the adjusted operating profit margin fell by 1.2 percentage points to 10.2% due to reduced revenue [2][8]. - The overall shareholder return rate for 2024 was 9.5%, and the company plans to allocate 75% of the adjusted net profit for 2025 to shareholder returns, expecting a return rate of 12.5% [2][8]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 110.8 billion yuan and 114.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 5% expected for adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][10]. - The target price for the company has been adjusted to between 18, reflecting an increase potential of 9% to 22% [3][10].