Eastroc Beverage(SH:605499) Orient Securities·2025-03-06 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve strong revenue and profit growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected earnings per share of 6.24, 8.45, and 10.83 yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 6.17, 7.69, and 9.57 yuan [2][8] - The stock price has already reflected short-term negative factors, and the impact of major shareholder reductions is gradually being digested by the market [7][8] - The company is expanding its product line with new sugar tea products and enhancing its digital marketing strategies to boost sales [7][8] - The company is also making strides in international markets, with plans to establish a factory in Indonesia to cater to the Southeast Asian beverage market [7][8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15,981 million, 20,858 million, and 25,631 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 41.9%, 30.5%, and 22.9% [3][8] - Operating profit is forecasted to reach 4,036 million, 5,607 million, and 7,184 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 55.9%, 38.9%, and 28.1% [3][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,243 million, 4,395 million, and 5,633 million yuan, with growth rates of 59.0%, 35.5%, and 28.2% [3][8] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.1% in 2026 [3][8] Valuation - The estimated equity value of the company is 157 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 301.88 yuan per share [2][8] - The report employs the FCFF valuation method, with key assumptions including a tax rate of 25%, a perpetual growth rate of 3%, and a WACC of 6.42% [8][9]