CHINA OVERSEAS(HK:00688) GF SECURITIES·2025-03-13 12:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 14.56 HKD and a fair value of 17.81 HKD [4]. Core Views - The company has strong sales performance, robust capabilities, and is undervalued in the market [1]. - The company ranks first in the industry for equity sales in 2024, achieving a sales amount of 270.6 billion RMB, which is a 1.3% year-on-year increase [32]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with major shareholders being state-owned enterprises [25]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenue for 2023 is 202.524 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 12% compared to 2022 [2]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is expected to be 28.449 billion RMB, slightly down from 2022 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is forecasted at 25.610 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% increase from 2022 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 2.34 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.6x [2]. Market Performance - The company has a strong market presence, with over 63% of its sales coming from first-tier cities in 2024 [11]. - The company has maintained a healthy sales-to-land acquisition ratio of 107% across 26 core cities from 2022 to 2024 [11]. - The commercial revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to be 3.54 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [11]. Business Overview - The company has a well-established development business, ranking first in equity sales and land acquisition in 2024 [11]. - The company has a strong management team with extensive experience in the industry, contributing to its operational stability [29]. - The company has a diversified business model, focusing on both residential and commercial real estate development [20].