Western Securities·2025-03-16 06:26Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6][22] Core Viewpoints - Cobalt prices have surged to 261,000 CNY/ton, marking a 64.15% increase since February 24, 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the cobalt supply-demand structure [3][10] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), as the largest cobalt supplier, has suspended cobalt exports for four months to address oversupply issues, which may lead to short-term price fluctuations [2][4] - The DRC's GDP is projected to exceed 70 billion USD in 2024, with mining contributing 30%-40% of this GDP, suggesting that the government will likely resume exports after the suspension period to maintain economic stability [3][4] Supply and Demand Summary - The DRC holds approximately 6 million tons of cobalt reserves, accounting for 54.44% of global reserves, and produced 220,000 tons in 2024, representing 75.86% of global production [4][11] - The suspension of exports is expected to reduce cobalt supply by 73,000 tons in 2025, potentially exacerbating supply shortages [4] - Cobalt demand is primarily driven by the battery sector, which accounted for 68.8% of global consumption in 2020, with projections for demand from electric vehicle batteries reaching 88,500 tons, 106,900 tons, and 126,200 tons from 2024 to 2026 [4][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that cobalt prices may stabilize and recover, with a potential improvement in the supply-demand structure. Investors are advised to focus on companies that may benefit from rising cobalt prices, such as Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt [5][21]