Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth of 20.2% year-on-year for 2024, achieving total revenue of 93.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.4% to 7.21 billion yuan [7] - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for 2024 reached 3.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with revenue contributions from various business segments including existing homes, new homes, home decoration, rental housing, and emerging businesses [7] - The company is expected to benefit from structural adjustments in the market, particularly in the second-hand housing market, which is anticipated to recover first in 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 77.78 billion yuan, projected to grow to 93.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 7.21 billion yuan, down from 9.80 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 26.41% [1] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to be 1.12 yuan in 2024, with projections of 1.82 yuan, 2.35 yuan, and 2.90 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Business Segments - Revenue from existing homes reached 282 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while new homes generated 337 billion yuan, up 10.1% [7] - Home decoration business saw a significant growth of 36.1%, contributing 148 billion yuan, and rental housing business surged by 135% to 143 billion yuan [7] - The company expanded its active store count to 49,700, an increase of 18.3%, and the number of active agents reached 445,000, up 12.1% [7] Market Position - The company increased its market share in the new home sector by 1.7 percentage points to 11.4%, despite a 3.3% decline in GTV for new homes [7] - The commission rate for new homes improved by 0.4 percentage points to 3.47% [7] - The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to continue their rapid growth, with the number of managed rental units increasing from 210,000 to 430,000 [7] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic brokerage industry, with potential for performance improvement driven by increased turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and enhanced penetration in new home brokerage [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 9.70 billion yuan and 11.62 billion yuan respectively, with a 2027 forecast of 13.62 billion yuan [7]
贝壳-W：2024年业绩公告点评：调结构提减值夯实基础，提份额稳费率迎接增长-20250320