CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898) 平安证券·2025-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Coal Energy [1] Core Views - The company's performance demonstrates resilience as increased volume and cost reductions offset the impact of price declines [7] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 189.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, and a net profit of 19.32 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year [4][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for 2024 [4] Financial Summary - The total coal sales volume in 2024 was 28.483 million tons, a slight decrease of 11,000 tons year-on-year, with total revenue from coal business at 160.712 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year [7] - The company's self-produced coal sales volume increased by 2.5% and 2.8% year-on-year, with unit sales price at 562 yuan/ton, down 6.6% [7] - The coal chemical business revenue was 20.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, with a gross margin of 15.2% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 184.696 billion yuan, 189.190 billion yuan, and 194.618 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of 18.514 billion yuan, 19.616 billion yuan, and 20.224 billion yuan [6][9] - The report anticipates a continued decline in coal prices, with a projected PE ratio of 7.5 for 2025, 7.0 for 2026, and 6.8 for 2027 [8][9] Dividend Policy - The overall cash dividend rate increased from 30% in 2023 to 40.65% in 2024, with projected dividend yields of 5.7% for A shares and 7.7% for H shares based on the closing price on March 24, 2025 [8]