美国关税加码，股市转向防守

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "oscillation" [1][4] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the global stock market turned from rising to falling, and the Chinese stock market also had a volume - shrinking correction. The US tariff increase led to a significant shock in the risk appetite of the global stock market. Chinese A - share investors are gradually taking risk - aversion operations and shifting their positions to blue - chip indexes. In April, both reciprocal tariffs and corporate earnings reports will pose significant tests to the market [2][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - Next - week's view: The US tariff increase has made the market turn to defense. The global stock market has been affected, and Chinese investors are taking risk - aversion measures. April will be a challenging month for the market [10] - This week's key events: - On March 24, multiple events occurred, including a 1.6% year - on - year decline in general public budget revenue from January to February, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security increasing financial support for stabilizing and expanding employment, the implementation of the inland waterway connectivity project, the revision of the "Regulations on Guaranteeing Payment of Small and Medium - sized Enterprises' Payments", and the change of MLF to a multi - price winning bid method [11][12][13][14][16] - On March 25, the 2025 Asian economic growth rate is expected to reach 4.5%, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out a pilot reform of automobile circulation and consumption [17][18] - On March 26, the State Council and the Ministry of Commerce support the construction of international consumption - center cities, and Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with the US Trade Representative [19][20] - On March 27, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size from January to February decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, the implementation of the offshore trade stamp - duty preferential policy continued, the 5th China International Consumer Products Expo was scheduled to be held from April 13 to 18, and Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars [21][22][23][24] - On March 28, President Xi Jinping met with representatives of the international business community, and the State Council Executive Meeting deployed work to accelerate the clearance of overdue payments to enterprises [25][26] 3.2 One - Week Market Quotes Overview - Global stock market weekly overview: From March 24 - 28, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 1.44%, with frontier markets (+0.89%) > emerging markets (-0.94%) > developed markets (-1.49%). The Saudi stock market led the world with a 2.07% increase, while the South Korean stock market had the worst performance with a 3.53% decline [27] - Chinese stock market weekly overview: In the Chinese equity market, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1261 billion yuan, a decrease of 288.9 billion yuan from last week. The style of A - share broad - based indexes reversed, with the Shanghai 50 rising 0.16% and the micro - cap stock index falling 4.45% [30] - Weekly overview of GICS primary industries in Chinese and foreign stock markets: Most global GICS primary industries closed down this week. The consumer staples industry rose 1.01%, performing well, while the information technology industry had the worst performance with a 3.65% decline. In the Chinese market, information technology led the decline (-3.22%), and healthcare led the rise (+1.13%) [33] - Weekly overview of China A - share CITIC primary industries: Among A - share CITIC primary industries, 5 rose and 25 fell this week. The leading industry was pharmaceuticals (+1.04%), and the lagging industry was computers (-4.84%) [35] - Weekly overview of China A - share style: The large - cap value style was dominant [39] - Overview of futures index basis: Relevant data on the basis of futures indexes such as IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months were presented [45][43] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - Broad - based index valuation: Valuation data such as PE and PB of broad - based indexes like the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc., were provided, along with their changes since the beginning of the year [48] - Primary industry valuation: Valuation data of primary industries including petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc., were presented, along with their changes since the beginning of the year [49] - Broad - based index equity risk premium: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [50][54] - Broad - based index consensus expected earnings growth rate: The expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in different years were adjusted [56] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - Interest rates and exchange rates: This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields declined, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 104, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.26 [63] - Trading - type capital tracking: The average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 27.2 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 11 billion yuan [67] - Tracking of funds flowing in through ETFs: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 800 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 300 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 400 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 increased by 2.2 billion shares [71][75] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data - Supply side: The blast furnace operation rate increased seasonally [78] - Consumption side: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices fluctuated. The year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined, and the crude oil price rebounded slightly to around $74.6 per barrel [87][97] - Inflation observation: Agricultural product prices stabilized and rebounded, while production material prices fluctuated at a low level [99][100]