4月：要防一把

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic fiscal revenue for January-February has weakened, with public fiscal revenue declining by 1.6% year-on-year, and tax revenue down by 3.9% [2] - The report highlights that the first half of April is likely to see a continuation of the "high-cut low" trend, with a focus on low-position cyclical relative returns and high-dividend absolute returns [2][4] - The report notes that the technology sector has shown signs of overheating, with the TMT index's trading volume dropping from around 50% to 27% [4][32] Group 2 - The report identifies industries with clear signs of improvement, including insurance, industrial metals, and optical electronics, with over half of the stocks in these sectors seeing upward revisions in earnings forecasts [60] - It also points out that while overall industry improvement may not be significant, sectors like batteries, photovoltaic equipment, and semiconductors have a considerable number of stocks with potential for exceeding expectations [60] - The report emphasizes that the overall improvement in industry sentiment may be concentrated among leading companies in sectors such as military electronics and engineering machinery [60] Group 3 - The report suggests that the high-dividend assets in the Hong Kong market have seen a significant increase, with the premium over A-share dividends reaching a three-year low [27][30] - It highlights that the performance of the TMT index in April has historically been poor, with only a 14.3% chance of outperforming the CSI 300 index [57] - The report indicates that the upcoming earnings reports in April are expected to show significant performance from sectors with improving earnings forecasts [60]