Guoyuan Securities·2025-03-31 07:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [5] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a downturn in 2023 with a market size decline of approximately 11%. However, a recovery is expected in 2024 with a growth of nearly 20%, reaching a market size of $628 billion. By 2030, the market is projected to reach $1 trillion, driven primarily by AI-related infrastructure in servers, data centers, and storage [2][25] - The report highlights the ongoing tight supply of H20 in China, which may drive demand for domestic computing power card replacements [1] Market Indices - The overseas AI chip index fell by 7.6% this week, influenced by potential tightening of export restrictions on Nvidia to China and competition from other efficient AI chip manufacturers. Nvidia's stock dropped nearly 7% [10] - The domestic AI chip index decreased by 1.9%, with notable declines in companies like Cambricon (over 8%) and Zhaoyi Innovation (over 5%), while Hengxuan Technology and Lanke Technology saw increases of 10% and nearly 5%, respectively [10] - The server ODM index dropped by 9.2%, with Supermicro experiencing a decline of over 18%, while Quanta performed well with a nearly 25% increase [10] - The storage chip index fell by 4.7%, with Jiangbolong and Shannon Semiconductor both declining over 7% [10] - The power semiconductor index decreased by 2.2%, and the A-share fruit chain index fell by 0.8%, while the Hong Kong fruit chain index dropped by 11.9% [10][19] Industry Data - The global smartphone application processor (AP-SoC) market share for Q4 2024 shows MediaTek, Apple, Qualcomm, Unisoc, Samsung, and Huawei HiSilicon occupying the top six positions, with shares of 34%, 23%, 21%, 14%, and 4% respectively [2][27] - The report indicates that the semiconductor market's growth will be primarily driven by AI applications, particularly in the infrastructure sector from 2024 to 2030 [25] Major Events - Tianyue Advanced reported a revenue of 1.768 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.37%, achieving profitability [32] - SMIC announced a revenue of 57.796 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.6% [32] - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported a revenue of 14.388 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.36% [32] - Lens Technology achieved a revenue of 69.897 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.27% [34] - Apple is set to launch the iPhone 16 series in Indonesia on April 11, following a significant investment plan [34] - Apple is ordering approximately $1 billion worth of Nvidia's GB300 NVL72 systems, equivalent to about 250 servers, to support generative AI applications [36]