CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898) 东莞证券·2025-03-31 08:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a stable performance and increasing dividend payout ratio [2][82]. Core Insights - The company is a state-owned enterprise controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), with a leading position in coal resources [6][11]. - The company has a diversified business model covering the entire coal industry chain, including coal mining, coal chemical production, and financial services, establishing a "coal-electricity-chemical-new" circular economy system [10][81]. - The company has significant coal reserves, with a total coal resource of 26.52 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 13.82 billion tons, ranking among the top coal companies in China [6][81]. - The company has seen a steady increase in coal production and sales, with a total capacity increase of 22.1 million tons from 2020 to 2024 [6][81]. - The company has a high proportion of long-term contracts, which effectively mitigates the impact of falling coal prices [6][82]. - The company is actively expanding its coal chemical business, which provides cost advantages and helps stabilize its coal business against cyclical fluctuations [6][82]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a major state-owned enterprise in the coal industry, with a strong focus on clean and efficient coal utilization and the development of new energy [10][81]. - The company has a robust financial management strategy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.3% in 2024, indicating sound financial health [21]. Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to experience tight supply and demand balance, with high inventory levels leading to potential price fluctuations in the short term [25][59]. - Domestic coal production is projected to grow slightly, with a total output of approximately 4.8 billion tons in 2025 [29]. Company Coal Business - The company has a leading position in coal resource reserves, with 21 operating mines and a total approved capacity of 16.3 million tons per year [63][81]. - The company has successfully reduced its coal production costs, with an average cost of 425.1 yuan per ton in 2024, down 0.8% year-on-year [71][82]. Company Coal Chemical Business - The company has a well-integrated coal chemical business, producing methanol, polyolefins, and urea, with a total production capacity of 5.69 million tons in 2024 [76][77]. - The company is planning new projects to enhance its coal chemical production capacity, which is expected to contribute to future growth [77][78]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 17.746 billion yuan in 2025 and 19.143 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.56 and 7.01 [82].