Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the demand for same-city delivery services, with projected growth rates of 23% for 2025 and 21% for 2026. However, the average delivery revenue per order may slightly decline year-on-year due to changes in order structure [2][6]. - Profit margins are anticipated to improve due to economies of scale, with management forecasting a profit margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 289% to RMB 79 million, driven by scale effects, customer structure optimization, and operational efficiency improvements [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19,350 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year. The revenue from same-city delivery services is expected to be RMB 11,316 million, while last-mile delivery is projected at RMB 8,034 million [5][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1,374 million, with a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted operating profit is expected to be RMB 293 million in 2025, with an adjusted operating margin of 1.5% [5][13]. Market Position and Performance - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6,571.76 million and a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date change of -2.80%, reflecting market volatility [4][12].
顺丰同城：即时配送场景持续扩充，规模化利润增长趋势显著-20250402