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中科飞测:公司点评:高研发投入利润短期承压,受益“国产替代”产品放量可期-20250406

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 54.94% year-on-year, reaching 1.38 billion RMB in 2024, although it faced a net loss of 0.12 billion RMB, a decline of 108.21% compared to the previous year due to high R&D and share-based payment expenses [1][6]. - The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to grow by 33.7% in 2024, reaching 49 billion USD, positioning it as the largest semiconductor equipment market globally. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to strong domestic demand for equipment [1][2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, with expenses reaching 498 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 118.17%, indicating a commitment to advancing its technology [2][6]. - The company has developed a comprehensive range of detection equipment, with over 300 units of non-graphical wafer defect detection equipment delivered to more than 100 clients, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [2][6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 2.04 billion RMB, 2.95 billion RMB, and 3.83 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% respectively [3][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.12 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 108.21% due to high R&D and share-based payment costs [1][6]. Operational Analysis - The company is expected to see continued growth in orders, supported by a strong domestic demand for semiconductor equipment, with a significant portion of the market currently dominated by U.S. companies [1][2]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with contract liabilities of 630 million RMB and inventory of 750 million RMB, indicating strong sales momentum [1][2]. R&D and Product Development - The company has made substantial investments in R&D, with expenses reaching 498 million RMB in 2024, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, reflecting a strategic focus on advanced technology [2][6]. - The company has successfully developed and delivered advanced detection equipment, enhancing its market position and ensuring competitiveness in the semiconductor industry [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.04 billion RMB, 2.95 billion RMB, and 3.83 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% [3][6].