Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11][14] Core Insights - The company is the largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in China, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities and towns, holding a market share of 17.7% in the mid-priced segment [5][29][32] - Strong product innovation capabilities are highlighted, with a high repurchase rate of 53% and a successful track record of new product launches [7][54][45] - The company operates the largest cold-chain supply chain in the industry, enabling efficient delivery of fresh ingredients to stores [8][59] - Franchisee profitability is robust, with an average operating profit of RMB 376,000 per store and a profit margin of 20.2% [9][10] - Revenue is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year to RMB 10.3 billion in 2025, driven by the opening of 2,000 new stores [10][15] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company from 2023 to 2027 show significant growth, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 1.9 billion in 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year [4][10][15] - The company’s current P/E ratio is 19x for 2025, with a target price set at HK$21.2, indicating a potential upside of 32% [11][14] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market presence in key provinces, achieving critical mass in store networks and leading market share in freshly-made tea drinks [5][56] - The franchise model is a key component of the business strategy, contributing significantly to revenue and profitability [39][40] - The company’s supply chain efficiency, driven by regional densification strategies, enhances its competitive edge in the market [55][56]
古茗（01364）：大众现制茶饮第一，最大规模冷链赋能