CCB(601939) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-13 05:10Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 760.15 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 2.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 335.58 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.88% [1][53]. - The company's total assets are anticipated to grow by 5.86% to 40.57 trillion yuan in 2024, with deposits and loans increasing by 3.73% and 8.33%, respectively [1]. - The net interest margin is projected to be 1.51% in 2024, down by 19 basis points year-over-year, but the decline is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter [2][56]. - Non-interest income is expected to grow by 5.09% in 2024, contributing significantly to overall revenue [2]. - The non-performing loan ratio is forecasted to be 1.34% at the end of 2024, indicating stable asset quality [3][58]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 760.15 billion yuan and 335.58 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-over-year revenue decline of 2.54% and a net profit increase of 0.88% [1][53]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.69%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous year [1][54]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 40.57 trillion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 5.86% [1]. - The net interest income is projected to decline by 4.43% year-over-year due to a narrowing net interest margin and insufficient effective credit demand [2][56]. - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to decrease slightly, reflecting the company's stable asset quality [3][58]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 343.34 billion yuan, 353.37 billion yuan, and 368.82 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 2.3%, 2.9%, and 4.4% [3][62]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are expected to be 1.36 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.46 yuan [3][62]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The absolute valuation using a three-stage DDM model suggests a value range of 9.8 to 13.6 yuan per share [69]. - Relative valuation indicates a reasonable value range of 9.3 to 10.1 yuan per share, considering a premium for the company's leading position in the market [71]. - The report concludes that the company's reasonable stock price for 2025 is between 9.6 and 11.9 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 7% to 33% from the current price [73].