GREE(SZ:000651) CMS·2025-04-29 08:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Gree Electric Appliances [4][7]. Core Views - The company's performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with a projected cumulative dividend payout ratio of 52% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of nearly 7% [1][7]. - Domestic demand is expected to be boosted by national subsidies, while exports continue to grow, with a 19% increase in air conditioning export volume in 2024 [7]. - The company has achieved a historical high in net profit margin, reaching 24% in Q4 2024, driven by operational efficiency improvements and digital transformation [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 205,018 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. However, a decline of 7% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with a 10% increase in 2025 [3][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 29,017 million yuan in 2023 to 35,034 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [3][13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 9.0 in 2023 to 7.4 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation [3][13]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 167 billion yuan, with a proposed dividend of 111.7 billion yuan for the annual report and an interim dividend of 55.2 billion yuan [7]. - The dividend per share is expected to increase from 2.39 yuan in 2023 to 3.13 yuan in 2025 [13]. Market Performance - Gree Electric Appliances has shown a strong market performance, with a 27% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6].