Huachuang Securities·2025-05-04 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.3 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 12.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.41 billion yuan, up 53.98% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in non-excavation machinery and overseas markets, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: Projected total revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 51.43 billion yuan, 59.02 billion yuan, and 68.74 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 14.8%, and 16.5% [4][9]. - Net Profit Forecasts: Expected net profits for the same years are 5.03 billion yuan, 6.05 billion yuan, and 7.27 billion yuan, with growth rates of 43.0%, 20.2%, and 20.1% [4][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Forecasted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.58 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 0.84 yuan, respectively [4][9]. - Valuation Ratios: The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 16 times [4][9]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in the domestic market, with domestic revenue of 5.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.59% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to 2024 [2][3]. - Overseas revenue reached 6.57 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.17%, with overseas revenue accounting for 54.2% of total revenue, up 5.77 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas presence, having established over 30 new operational sites and 12 service parts warehouses in various countries, including the UK, Germany, and Turkey [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on digitalization and localization strategies to enhance its global footprint and mitigate trade friction risks [2][3].