Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].
宁证期货今日早评-20250507
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-05-07 02:05