港股市场策略周报2024.1.22-2024.1.28-20250507

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong rebound this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.43%, 2.38%, and 5.24% respectively, driven by increasing expectations of negotiations between China and the US [6][16] - All primary industry sectors in the Hong Kong market experienced gains, with Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare leading the way, achieving weekly increases of 5.0%, 3.7%, and 2.4% respectively [6][16] - The valuation level of the Hang Seng Composite Index reached a 5-year PE (TTM) percentile of approximately 58%, still below the 5-year average [6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the Chinese manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.0, a decline from 50.5 in March, reflecting weaker-than-expected performance and pressure from US-China trade tensions [46][48] - The report highlights that over 80% of the profits in the Hong Kong market come from Chinese companies, which are closely tied to the economic conditions in mainland China [39][41] - The report anticipates that China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve its annual growth targets, in response to external demand pressures [46][48] Group 3 - The report indicates a notable trend in share buybacks, with a total buyback amount of 1.44 billion HKD this week, slightly down from 1.53 billion HKD the previous week [27][30] - A total of 66 companies engaged in buybacks this week, an increase from 62 companies the prior week, indicating a stable market interest in share repurchases [27][30] - The top three companies by buyback amount were AIA Group (57.58 million HKD), China Hongqiao (30.47 million HKD), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (16.26 million HKD) [27][30] Group 4 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies [46][48] - It also suggests focusing on undervalued state-owned enterprises that are likely to benefit from policy support, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks that are relatively insulated from external pressures [46][48] - The report advises caution regarding sectors with significant exposure to US markets due to ongoing trade disputes [46][48]