天味食品：线上渠道提供增量，整体经营静待恢复-20250507

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 24.80% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of 642 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 57.53% year-on-year [2] - The sales pressure in Q1 2025 was attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, while online channels provided incremental growth [3] - The company has been actively exploring external mergers and acquisitions, which have contributed to growth in online channels and improved performance in certain product categories [5] - The overall business performance is expected to stabilize and recover in the future [5] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from various product categories showed significant declines, with hot pot condiments down 41.05% and sausage and cured meat condiments down 55.77% [3] - The company's gross margin in Q1 2025 was 40.74%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant decline in high-margin products [4] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.65%, down 8.98 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability due to cost and expense pressures [4] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted downwards to 37.04 billion yuan, 41.19 billion yuan, and 45.23 billion yuan respectively [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the same period have also been revised down to 0.57 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the closing price of 11.29 yuan per share are projected to be 20, 17, and 15 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]