美国一季度硬数据恶化并不明显，消费依然稳定

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May FOMC meeting, with limited incremental information provided[2] - The Fed's current stance suggests that rate cuts may not occur in the first half of the year, as they remain data-dependent[2] - The Fed is likely to implement two to three rate cuts in the second half of the year, with the probability of a July cut decreasing[2][4] Inflation and Economic Concerns - The Fed emphasizes the risk of stagflation, with concerns about rising inflation and potential increases in unemployment[5] - Internal divisions within the Fed exist regarding the approach to inflation, with some officials advocating for preemptive rate cuts if hard data deteriorates significantly[5][10] - The inflation target for 2025 is projected to remain between 3.0%-3.5%, which does not hinder the possibility of rate cuts[22] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations indicate three potential rate cuts by 2025, with the first cut anticipated in July[20] - U.S. stock indices rose following the meeting, while U.S. Treasury yields declined, reflecting market relief at the Fed's cautious approach[20] - The dollar index increased to 99.9006, indicating market stability despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation[20] Economic Data and Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, but there are risks of deterioration that could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts[14][18] - The Fed's reliance on hard data suggests that any significant economic downturn may not be observed until mid-year or later[12][22] - The ongoing tariff negotiations and fiscal policies are deemed more critical in the short term than immediate Fed actions[15]