Minsheng Securities·2025-05-08 11:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies like Funiu Co., Huaneng Water Power, and China Nuclear Power, while giving a "Cautious Recommendation" for companies like China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The electricity sector shows resilience with a strong performance in Q1 2025, driven by stable demand and a transition towards peak electricity consumption in Q2 and Q3 [1][11]. - The coal price drop significantly benefits thermal power companies, leading to improved profitability despite a decrease in revenue due to falling electricity prices [2][3]. - Hydropower companies are experiencing stable growth, supported by favorable water conditions and new capacity additions, although they face some pressure from tax payments [2][54]. - Nuclear power continues to expand in capacity, but faces short-term fluctuations in profitability due to tax expenses and market price changes [2][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector Performance - The electricity index has shown strength, with the sector outperforming the broader market in early 2025, despite initial underperformance compared to growth stocks [1][11]. - The sector is expected to maintain steady growth as it enters the peak electricity consumption season in Q2 and Q3 [1][11]. 2. Thermal Power - Thermal power revenue decreased by 1% in 2024 to 1,218.9 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 revenue down 8% year-on-year to 286.9 billion yuan [2][36]. - Despite revenue declines, net profit for thermal power companies increased by 31% in 2024 to 65.6 billion yuan, and by 8% in Q1 2025 to 21.9 billion yuan, benefiting from lower coal prices [2][38]. 3. Hydropower - Hydropower revenue grew by 8.98% in 2024 to 194.4 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 revenue increasing by 8.63% to 417.7 billion yuan [2][54]. - The net profit for hydropower companies rose by 17.48% in 2024 to 56.4 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 28.11% in Q1 2025 to 113.5 billion yuan [2][57]. 4. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector achieved a revenue of 164.1 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.17% increase, but net profit fell by 8.23% to 19.6 billion yuan [2][71]. - In Q1 2025, nuclear power revenue rose by 8.42% to 40.3 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.51% to 6.2 billion yuan [2][71]. 5. Green Energy - The green energy sector faced challenges with revenue growth not translating into profit, with 2024 revenue at 143.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.27%, but net profit decreased by 6.48% to 239.9 billion yuan [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, green energy revenue fell by 3.35% to 350.5 billion yuan, with net profit down 6.32% to 77.4 billion yuan [2][3].