CMS·2025-05-12 01:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming sector is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [2] Core Insights - The poultry sector is expected to see revenue growth in 2024, driven by improved breeding costs, leading to a recovery in profitability. The second half of 2025 is anticipated to witness a rebound in white chicken breeding prices, with significant profit elasticity expected after the peak season for yellow chicken prices. [1][8] Summary by Sections Review: Cost Improvement Drives Profit Recovery - In 2024, the poultry sector's total revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, but the net profit excluding non-recurring items turned positive. In Q4 2024, total revenue increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a 6% increase in revenue year-on-year, despite a 15% quarter-on-quarter decline. [5][8] - The average price of white feather chicken chicks in 2024 was 3.25 CNY per chick, up 4.4% year-on-year, while the average price of chicken products fell by 12.2%. The average price of live chickens dropped by 13.6%. [12][13] - For yellow feather chicken, the average price of snow mountain chickens decreased by 11% year-on-year, and fast-growing chickens saw an 8% decline. Despite falling prices, the reduction in breeding costs led to significant profit improvements for leading companies. [12][13] Outlook: Breeding Sector Expected to Rebound - The breeding sector for white feather chickens is expected to see a tightening supply in the second half of 2025, which will impact the supply of commodity meat chickens in 2026. [26][35] - The current stock of parent breeding chickens has dropped to historically low levels, setting the stage for future price increases. The cost of yellow feather chicken breeding has decreased, and a price rebound is expected to significantly enhance profit margins. [27][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the breeding sector for white feather chickens, with Shengnong Development highlighted as a key player benefiting from cost improvements. For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended due to their potential for profit recovery as prices rebound. [35][37]